Oil Spill Disasters

Good Decisions, Bad Outcomes

Harvard Business Review |

In Brief...

If you practice kicking a soccer ball with your eyes closed, it takes only a few tries to become quite good at predicting where the ball will end up. The problem is that there s plenty of random noise in competitive strategic decisions. In the real world, the random noise is often more subtle and various a hundred little things rather than one big thing. In the last year I ve asked many board members how much of a company s stock value they think should be attributed to the CEO s strength, and the answer is surprising. They estimate that you ll get about 10% more stock value, on average, from a good CEO than from a mediocre one.

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